REGIME: 3/5 panels structural, Ch.11 fresh, FTC sec-reqLIPO: new Ch.11 petitionCTAS: second request issuedBOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+3.26 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)
Today's read — 2026-07-16
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +3.26σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
LIPELLA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. — severe distress. Score 1.00. Filed 2026-07-15. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
PDUFA CELC on 2026-07-17. Celcuity Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-17 (8-K 2026-06-02).
smart-money consensus
MICROSOFT CORP — 1 managers buying vs 4 selling, net $-2.34B. Consensus 13F selling (Q1 2026).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 7m ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.4s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=102.7s
PASS structural_scan rows=4315.6s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=1271.5s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.4s
PASS stub_scanner rows=8421.6s
PASS regulatory rows=453.3s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=1521.6s
PASS bankruptcy rows=33.1s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.8s
structural z-scores 21s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +3.26 | 622.20K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | MSACSR | leverage | +2.34 | 10.30 | -15.6% below ATH | top 2.7% | 2026-05-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 3 | HOSMEDUSM052N | price_div | +2.23 | 440.60K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-06-01 | Median sale price of new houses |
| 4 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.10 | 8.98M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 5 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +2.00 | 25.62K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-07-01 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 6 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.63 | 26.27K | -3.0% below ATH | top 6% | 2026-07-15 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 7 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.58 | 68.55 | +0.9% above ATL | bottom 1.2% | 2025-04-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 8 | SP500 | price_div | +1.35 | 7.57K | ● at ATH | top 8% | 2026-07-15 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 9 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.34 | 713.09 | ● at ATH | top 14% | 2026-01-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 10 | PSAVERT | credit_coll | +1.17 | 3.00 | -90.6% below ATH | bottom 9% | 2026-05-01 | Personal saving rate — low = credit-fueled spending |
| 11 | BAMLH0A3HYC | narrative | -1.07 | 9.73 | +41.0% above ATL | top 10% | 2026-07-14 | ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS — junk-of-junk complacency |
| 12 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
merger arb spreads 23s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
no deals passed the sanity floor (15 deals found but offer_value could not be parsed from filings — EDGAR proxy/S-4 parsing may need updated patterns)
regulatory events 5s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-07-14 | prohibition | FTC Secures Major Settlement with Caremark, Resolving Antitrust Case Against Second Drug M | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-07-13 | prohibition | FTC Secures $12 Million in Penalties for Pre-Merger Reporting Act Violations | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-07-02 | prohibition | FTC and DOJ Issue Fiscal Year 2025 Hart-Scott-Rodino Annual Report | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-06-30 | prohibition | FTC Secures Agreement with Havas to Restore Competition in the Digital Advertising Ecosyst | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-06-22 | prohibition | FTC Approves Final Consent Order in Pest-Control Noncompete Matter | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-15 | CTAS | second_request | CINTAS CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-14 | DIOD | second_request | DIODES INC /DEL/ 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-13 | VEEE | second_request | Twin Vee PowerCats, Co. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-07 | RES | second_request | RPC INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-01 | VAL | second_request | Valaris Ltd 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-01 | RIG | second_request | Transocean Ltd. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-01 | UNF | second_request | UNIFIRST CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-01 | FMC | second_request | FMC CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | DEA | second_request | Easterly Government Properties, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | PATK | second_request | PATRICK INDUSTRIES INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | LCII | second_request | LCI INDUSTRIES 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | TALO | second_request | TALOS ENERGY INC. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-29 | KFY | phase_ii_opened | KORN FERRY 8-K mentions 'Phase 2 investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-26 | FUL | phase_ii_opened | FULLER H B CO 8-K mentions 'in-depth investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-24 | CCXI | second_request | Churchill Capital Corp XI 8-K mentions 'second request' |
catalyst calendar 1s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | pdufa | CELC | scheduled | Celcuity Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-17 (8-K 2026-06-02) |
| 2026-07-29 | pdufa | OTLK | expected | Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-29 (8-K 2026-06-16) |
| 2026-08-05 | pdufa | MRNA | expected | Moderna, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-05 (8-K 2026-05-01) |
| 2026-08-17 | pdufa | PFE | expected | PFIZER INC: PDUFA action date 2026-08-17 (8-K 2026-05-05) |
| 2026-08-22 | pdufa | CAPR | expected | CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-22 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-08-25 | pdufa | ZYME | expected | Zymeworks Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-25 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-08-27 | pdufa | GILD | expected | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-27 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-18 | pdufa | NUVL | expected | Nuvalent, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-18 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-27 | pdufa | PRAX | expected | Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-27 (8-K 2026-06-29) |
| 2026-09-28 | pdufa | BFRI | expected | Biofrontera Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-28 (8-K 2026-05-14) |
| 2026-07-29 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-09-16 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-08-28 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI quarterly index review effective |
| 2026-09-18 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-07-21 | trial_phase3 | Chiesi F | inferred | Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Daily Subcutaneous Metreleptin Trea |
| 2026-07-31 | trial_phase3 | Jiangsu | inferred | A Study to Evaluate Camrelizumab Plus Rivoceranib (Apatinib) as Adjuvant Therapy |
| 2026-08-01 | trial_phase3 | Karyopha | inferred | Selinexor in Maintenance Therapy After Systemic Therapy for Participants With p5 |
| 2026-08-10 | trial_phase3 | Incyte C | inferred | A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Ruxolitinib Cream in Pediatric Pa |
| 2026-08-21 | trial_phase3 | Longboar | inferred | A Phase 3, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate LP352 in Children and Adults |
| 2026-08-31 | trial_phase3 | Galderma | inferred | Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Nemolizumab With Moderate-to-severe Atopic Derm |
chapter 11 dockets 0s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
stub pairs 2m ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFTBY | ARM | $215.76B | $266.28B | $-50.52B | -1.99 |
| FWONA | FWONK | $22.93B | $25.06B | $-2.13B | -0.48 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $4.42B | $4.20B | $226M | +1.67 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $4.42B | $4.20B | $228M | +1.68 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.14B | $2.40B | $745M | -1.79 |
HY ETF prem/disc 1m ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYLB | $36.41 | $36.35 | +0.171% | -0.58 | normal | 2026-07-16 08:53 |
| JNK | $96.07 | $95.79 | +0.290% | -0.55 | normal | 2026-07-16 08:53 |
| USHY | $36.91 | $36.82 | +0.252% | -0.54 | normal | 2026-07-16 08:54 |
| HYG | $79.81 | $79.55 | +0.323% | -0.40 | normal | 2026-07-16 08:52 |
corporate pivots 3s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals stale EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNGO | Bionano Genomics, Inc. | 76% | 7.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| GNPX | Genprex, Inc. | 99% | 6.66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| FRMI | Fermi Inc. | 81% | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| ZSQR | Z Squared Inc. | 69% | 5.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| CRMT | AMERICAS CARMART INC | 92% | 5.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| ADTX | Aditxt, Inc. | 100% | 5.17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · ioi … |
| BNC | CEA Industries Inc. | 90% | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWW | CEA Industries Inc. | 94% | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWZ | CEA Industries Inc. | 83% | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| ZONE | CleanCore Solutions, Inc. | 90% | 5.08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · separation · strategic_review |
| GPRO | GoPro, Inc. | 76% | 5.00 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies, In | 82% | 4.72 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BIRD | Smartbird, Inc. | 83% | 4.41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| CVKD | Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. | 83% | 4.37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| TOVX | Theriva Biologics, Inc. | 71% | 4.35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | separation · strategic_review |
| MTNB | Matinas BioPharma Holdings, | 86% | 4.32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_resign · ioi · separation … |
| PASG | Passage BIO, Inc. | 75% | 4.26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ioi · strategic_review |
| NOTE | FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. | 99% | 4.10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · strategic_review |
value-screen cache: 0/69 tickers have fundamental analysis cached. Daily render workflow pre-warms these. Locally:
python value_screen.py scan --max-tickers 80smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q1 2026 · 15w · next ~Aug 14 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 (period: 2026-03-31 vs 2025-12-31)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | CHEVRON CORPORATION | $12.05B | $295M | $11.76B | +2906% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $11.87B | $5.59B | $6.29B | +131% |
| DROPPED | GATES | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $0 | $3.72B | $-3.72B | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | VISA INC | $0 | $2.91B | $-2.91B | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | DELTA AIR LINES INC | $2.65B | $0 | $2.65B | +100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | MASTERCARD INCORPORATED | $0 | $2.28B | $-2.28B | -100% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $2.09B | $0 | $2.09B | +100% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $89M | $1.93B | $-1.84B | -95% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC | $95M | $1.79B | $-1.70B | -95% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q1 2026 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $8.17B | $9.75B | $-1.59B | -12% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | DOMINOS PIZZA INC | $0 | $1.40B | $-1.40B | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $1.03B | $0 | $1.03B | +100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | $0 | $1.02B | $-1.02B | -100% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | NEW YORK TIMES CO MTN BE | $1.15B | $254M | $897M | +275% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC | $0 | $870M | $-870M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | POOL CORP | $0 | $702M | $-702M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | AON PLC | $0 | $618M | $-618M | -100% |
| DROPPED | THIRD_POINT | Q1 2026 | PG&E CORP | $0 | $551M | $-551M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | AMAZON COM INC | $0 | $525M | $-525M | -100% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q1 2026 · 15w · next ~Aug 14 Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICROSOFT CORP | 1 | 4 | $-2.34B | GATES, PERSHING_SQUARE, THIRD_POINT |
| UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | 0 | 3 | $-1.17B | BERKSHIRE, SCION, APPALOOSA |
| ALIBABA GROUP HLDG LTD | 0 | 3 | $-468M | APPALOOSA, THIRD_POINT, SCION |
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-122M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| ALPHABET INC | 4 | 2 | $5.32B | BERKSHIRE, PERSHING_SQUARE, BERKSHIRE |
| PG&E CORP | 1 | 3 | $-563M | THIRD_POINT, THIRD_POINT, THIRD_POINT |
| AMAZON COM INC | 3 | 2 | $-57M | BERKSHIRE, APPALOOSA, PERSHING_SQUARE |