REGIME: 3/5 panels structural, HY credit, Ch.11 freshHYLB: HY stress z=-2.66USHY: HY stress z=-2.65HYG: HY stress z=-2.59JNK: HY stress z=-2.51BOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+3.26 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)
Today's read — 2026-09-02
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +3.26σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC — severe distress. Score 0.99. Filed 2026-08-28. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
FOMC RATES on 2026-09-16. FOMC policy decision / press conference.
smart-money consensus
ALPHABET INC — 7 managers buying vs 2 selling, net $18.73B. Consensus 13F buying (Q2 2026).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 8m ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.3s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=100.4s
PASS structural_scan rows=4315.9s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=1251.8s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.5s
PASS stub_scanner rows=8421.4s
PASS regulatory rows=4113.3s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=1527.8s
PASS bankruptcy rows=31.7s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.8s
structural z-scores 17s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +3.26 | 622.20K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.10 | 8.98M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 3 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +1.98 | 25.65K | ● at ATH | top 0.2% | 2026-08-19 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 4 | MSACSR | leverage | +1.93 | 9.60 | -21.3% below ATH | top 4.0% | 2026-07-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 5 | BAMLH0A3HYC | narrative | -1.78 | 10.42 | +51.0% above ATL | top 1.5% | 2026-08-31 | ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS — junk-of-junk complacency |
| 6 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.58 | 68.55 | +0.9% above ATL | bottom 1.2% | 2025-04-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 7 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.54 | 26.10K | -3.7% below ATH | top 7% | 2026-09-01 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 8 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.32 | 719.87 | ● at ATH | top 14% | 2026-04-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 9 | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | narrative | +1.19 | 2.63 | -43.0% below ATH | bottom 2.0% | 2026-08-31 | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS — low = complacency |
| 10 | PSAVERT | credit_coll | +1.16 | 3.00 | -90.6% below ATH | bottom 9% | 2026-07-01 | Personal saving rate — low = credit-fueled spending |
| 11 | SP500 | price_div | +1.16 | 7.63K | -2.1% below ATH | top 11% | 2026-09-01 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 12 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
merger arb spreads 19s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
no deals passed the sanity floor (15 deals found but offer_value could not be parsed from filings — EDGAR proxy/S-4 parsing may need updated patterns)
regulatory events 16s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-08-24 | prohibition | FTC Secures Order Resolving Antitrust Concerns with Zillow-Redfin Agreement | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-08-17 | prohibition | Statement on FTC Win Blocking Loctite, Liquid Nails Construction Adhesive Merger | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-01 | KUST | statement_of_objections | KUSTOM ENTERTAINMENT, INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-31 | TDW | statement_of_objections | TIDEWATER INC 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-27 | VNCE | second_request | VINCE HOLDING CORP. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-20 | OTF | second_request | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-14 | ARX | second_request | Accelerant Holdings 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-14 | SKYE | second_request | Skye Bioscience, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-12 | second_request | Nuveen Churchill Private Capital Income Fund 8-K mentions 'second request' | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-10 | DV | second_request | DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-10 | ACHR | second_request | Archer Aviation Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-10 | GTE | statement_of_objections | GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-06 | APC | second_request | ARKO Petroleum Corp. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-06 | ARKO | second_request | ARKO Corp. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-06 | HYFM | statement_of_objections | HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-05 | VREOF | statement_of_objections | Vireo Growth Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-04 | LNTH | second_request | Lantheus Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-04 | PLD | phase_ii_opened | Prologis, Inc. 8-K mentions 'Phase II investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | SWKS | second_request | SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | OBX | second_request | Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
catalyst calendar 2s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | pdufa | PMVP | estimated | PMV Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 8-K mentions 'FDA has accepted' |
| 2026-09-18 | pdufa | NUVL | expected | Nuvalent, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-18 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-22 | pdufa | IONS | expected | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC: PDUFA action date 2026-09-22 (8-K 2026-07-29) |
| 2026-09-27 | pdufa | PRAX | expected | Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-27 (8-K 2026-06-29) |
| 2026-09-28 | pdufa | BFRI | expected | Biofrontera Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-28 (8-K 2026-05-14) |
| 2026-10-30 | pdufa | INO | expected | INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-10-30 (8-K 2026-08-12) |
| 2026-11-01 | pdufa | AGIO | expected | AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-01 (8-K 2026-07-30) |
| 2026-11-14 | pdufa | BTAI | expected | BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-14 (8-K 2026-05-15) |
| 2026-11-27 | pdufa | BBIO | expected | BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-27 (8-K 2026-08-10) |
| 2026-09-16 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-11-04 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-09-18 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-11-27 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI semi-annual index review effective |
| 2026-09-06 | trial_phase3 | ALK-Abel | inferred | A Research Study of House Dust Mite (HDM) SLIT-tablet for the Treatment of HDM A |
| 2026-09-30 | trial_phase3 | Beijing | inferred | Efficacy and Safety of Pirfenidone Capsules in the Treatment of Pneumoconiosis ( |
| 2026-10-01 | trial_phase3 | Celldex | inferred | A Phase 3 Study of Barzolvolimab in Participants With Chronic Spontaneous Urtica |
| 2026-10-01 | trial_phase3 | Sol-Gel | inferred | Efficacy and Safety of Patidegib Gel 2% for Preventing Basal Cell Carcinomas on |
| 2026-10-07 | trial_phase3 | Regenero | inferred | Study to Assess the Long-term Safety of Dupilumab Administered in Participants ≥ |
| 2026-11-01 | trial_phase3 | Eli Lill | inferred | A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) Compared With Placebo in Adults With Type 1 D |
| 2026-11-28 | trial_phase3 | Haisco P | inferred | A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of HSK31858 in Participants With Non-C |
chapter 11 dockets 0s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
stub pairs 2m ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFTBY | ARM | $181.00B | $225.71B | $-44.71B | -1.08 |
| FWONA | FWONK | $22.49B | $24.31B | $-1.82B | +0.57 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $5.17B | $4.53B | $635M | +1.40 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $5.18B | $4.53B | $644M | +1.40 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.14B | $2.05B | $1.09B | -1.74 |
HY ETF prem/disc 1m ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYLB | $36.09 | $36.41 | -0.871% | -2.66 | stress | 2026-09-02 11:48 |
| USHY | $36.59 | $36.87 | -0.759% | -2.65 | stress | 2026-09-02 11:49 |
| HYG | $79.10 | $79.66 | -0.699% | -2.59 | stress | 2026-09-02 11:47 |
| JNK | $95.21 | $95.92 | -0.739% | -2.51 | stress | 2026-09-02 11:48 |
corporate pivots 1s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals stale EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INV | Innventure, Inc. | 84% | 7.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| INVLW | Innventure, Inc. | 95% | 7.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies, In | 89% | 7.62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| VITL | Vital Farms, Inc. | 80% | 5.44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| GETY | Getty Images Holdings, Inc. | 90% | 5.43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| NXGL | NEXGEL, INC. | 87% | 5.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| NXGLW | NEXGEL, INC. | 95% | 5.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| DAIC | CID Holdco, Inc. | 97% | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| DAICW | CID Holdco, Inc. | 96% | 5.13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| TOVX | Theriva Biologics, Inc. | 70% | 4.99 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| BNC | CEA Industries Inc. | 86% | 4.69 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWW | CEA Industries Inc. | 92% | 4.69 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWZ | CEA Industries Inc. | 89% | 4.69 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| CD | Chaince Digital Holdings Inc | 72% | 4.32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| HWH | HWH International Inc. | 70% | 4.32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| FRMI | Fermi Inc. | 86% | 4.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_resign · separation · strategic_review |
| RMCF | Rocky Mountain Chocolate Fac | 64% | 4.27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · separation · strategic_review |
| SBIGW | SpringBig Holdings, Inc. | 95% | 4.08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
value-screen cache: 0/85 tickers have fundamental analysis cached. Daily render workflow pre-warms these. Locally:
python value_screen.py scan --max-tickers 80smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q2 2026 · 9w · next ~Nov 14 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 (period: 2026-06-30 vs 2026-03-31)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $23.52B | $11.87B | $11.65B | +59% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $9.61B | $1.03B | $8.58B | +658% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | DELTA AIR LINES INC | $5.37B | $2.65B | $2.72B | +44% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $2.09B | $0 | $2.09B | +100% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $89M | $1.93B | $-1.84B | -95% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | STATE STREET CORP | $1.01B | $0 | $1.01B | +100% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC | $0 | $870M | $-870M | -100% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q2 2026 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $7.35B | $8.17B | $-819M | -14% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | DAVITA INC | $3.09B | $2.32B | $769M | -8% |
| DECREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | $1.13B | $563M | $563M | -41% |
| NEW | THIRD_POINT | Q2 2026 | WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC | $533M | $0 | $533M | +100% |
| NEW | GATES | Q2 2026 | HOME DEPOT INC | $353M | $0 | $353M | +100% |
| INCREASED | HIMALAYA | Q2 2026 | PDD HOLDINGS INC | $821M | $471M | $350M | +134% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | $788M | $449M | $339M | +24% |
| INCREASED | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | INVESCO QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 | $652M | $329M | $323M | +55% |
| INCREASED | THIRD_POINT | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $366M | $50M | $316M | +486% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | AMAZON COM INC | $1.19B | $900M | $292M | +16% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | INDIVIOR PHARMACEUTICALS INC | $251M | $0 | $251M | +100% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | NUCOR CORP | $414M | $661M | $-247M | -52% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q2 2026 · 9w · next ~Nov 14 Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHABET INC | 7 | 2 | $18.73B | BERKSHIRE, BERKSHIRE, PERSHING_SQUARE |
| TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | 3 | 0 | $469M | APPALOOSA, THIRD_POINT, ARIEL |
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-74M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| ETSY INC | 3 | 0 | $27M | OAKTREE, OAKTREE, OAKTREE |
| AMAZON COM INC | 3 | 1 | $473M | APPALOOSA, PERSHING_SQUARE, THIRD_POINT |