BOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+3.26 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)
Today's read — 2026-08-31
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +3.26σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC — severe distress. Score 0.99. Filed 2026-08-28. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
FOMC RATES on 2026-09-16. FOMC policy decision / press conference.
smart-money consensus
ALPHABET INC — 7 managers buying vs 2 selling, net $18.73B. Consensus 13F buying (Q2 2026).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 8m ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.4s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=100.8s
PASS structural_scan rows=4322.3s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=1219.8s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.5s
PASS stub_scanner rows=8422.1s
PASS regulatory rows=394.7s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=1228.6s
PASS bankruptcy rows=34.1s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.9s
structural z-scores 23s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +3.26 | 622.20K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.10 | 8.98M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 3 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +1.98 | 25.65K | ● at ATH | top 0.2% | 2026-08-19 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 4 | MSACSR | leverage | +1.93 | 9.60 | -21.3% below ATH | top 4.0% | 2026-07-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 5 | BAMLH0A3HYC | narrative | -1.66 | 10.31 | +49.4% above ATL | top 2.8% | 2026-08-27 | ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS — junk-of-junk complacency |
| 6 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.58 | 68.55 | +0.9% above ATL | bottom 1.2% | 2025-04-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 7 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.58 | 26.40K | -2.6% below ATH | top 7% | 2026-08-28 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 8 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.32 | 719.87 | ● at ATH | top 14% | 2026-04-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 9 | SP500 | price_div | +1.31 | 7.71K | -1.1% below ATH | top 9% | 2026-08-28 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 10 | BAMLH0A0HYM2 | narrative | +1.19 | 2.63 | -43.0% below ATH | bottom 1.8% | 2026-08-27 | ICE BofA US High Yield OAS — low = complacency |
| 11 | PSAVERT | credit_coll | +1.16 | 3.00 | -90.6% below ATH | bottom 9% | 2026-07-01 | Personal saving rate — low = credit-fueled spending |
| 12 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
merger arb spreads 36s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
no deals passed the sanity floor (15 deals found but offer_value could not be parsed from filings — EDGAR proxy/S-4 parsing may need updated patterns)
regulatory events 4s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-08-24 | prohibition | FTC Secures Order Resolving Antitrust Concerns with Zillow-Redfin Agreement | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-08-17 | prohibition | Statement on FTC Win Blocking Loctite, Liquid Nails Construction Adhesive Merger | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-27 | VNCE | second_request | VINCE HOLDING CORP. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-20 | OTF | second_request | Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-14 | ARX | second_request | Accelerant Holdings 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-14 | SKYE | second_request | Skye Bioscience, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-12 | second_request | Nuveen Churchill Private Capital Income Fund 8-K mentions 'second request' | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-10 | DV | second_request | DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-10 | ACHR | second_request | Archer Aviation Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-10 | GTE | statement_of_objections | GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-06 | APC | second_request | ARKO Petroleum Corp. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-06 | ARKO | second_request | ARKO Corp. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-06 | HYFM | statement_of_objections | HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-05 | VREOF | statement_of_objections | Vireo Growth Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-04 | LNTH | second_request | Lantheus Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-04 | PLD | phase_ii_opened | Prologis, Inc. 8-K mentions 'Phase II investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | SWKS | second_request | SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | OBX | second_request | Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | TEAD | statement_of_objections | Teads Holding Co. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| medi | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-28 | SEQC | withdrawn | SeeQC, Inc. 8-K mentions 'terminated the merger agreement' |
catalyst calendar 2s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | pdufa | NUVL | expected | Nuvalent, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-18 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-22 | pdufa | IONS | expected | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC: PDUFA action date 2026-09-22 (8-K 2026-07-29) |
| 2026-09-27 | pdufa | PRAX | expected | Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-27 (8-K 2026-06-29) |
| 2026-09-28 | pdufa | BFRI | expected | Biofrontera Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-28 (8-K 2026-05-14) |
| 2026-10-30 | pdufa | INO | expected | INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-10-30 (8-K 2026-08-12) |
| 2026-11-01 | pdufa | AGIO | expected | AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-01 (8-K 2026-07-30) |
| 2026-11-14 | pdufa | BTAI | expected | BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-14 (8-K 2026-05-15) |
| 2026-11-27 | pdufa | BBIO | expected | BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-27 (8-K 2026-08-10) |
| 2026-09-16 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-11-04 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-09-18 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-11-27 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI semi-annual index review effective |
| 2026-09-19 | trial_phase3 | Teva Bra | inferred | A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial on Efficacy and Safety of F |
| 2026-10-05 | trial_phase3 | Karuna T | inferred | A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of KarXT for the Treatment of Psychosis As |
| 2026-10-12 | trial_phase3 | Janssen | inferred | A Study of an Intermittent ADT Approach With Apalutamide Monotherapy in Particip |
| 2026-10-14 | trial_phase3 | Sanofi | inferred | A Phase 3 Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Itepekimab ( |
| 2026-10-29 | trial_phase3 | Novartis | inferred | Study of Ianalumab Versus Placebo in Addition to First-line Corticosteroids in P |
| 2026-10-31 | trial_phase3 | Longboar | inferred | A Study to Investigate LP352 in Children and Adults With Developmental and Epile |
| 2026-11-02 | trial_phase3 | Bristol- | inferred | A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of KarXT for the Treatment of Manic |
chapter 11 dockets 2s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
stub pairs 2m ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFTBY | ARM | $179.97B | $229.77B | $-49.80B | -1.16 |
| FWONA | FWONK | $23.42B | $25.52B | $-2.10B | -0.33 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $5.17B | $4.76B | $405M | +1.40 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $5.18B | $4.76B | $413M | +1.40 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.14B | $2.13B | $1.01B | -1.74 |
HY ETF prem/disc 1m ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYG | $79.74 | $79.79 | -0.067% | +0.33 | normal | 2026-08-31 14:30 |
| JNK | $95.97 | $96.04 | -0.074% | +0.12 | normal | 2026-08-31 14:31 |
| HYLB | $36.37 | $36.45 | -0.214% | +0.10 | normal | 2026-08-31 14:31 |
| USHY | $36.87 | $36.92 | -0.140% | +0.07 | normal | 2026-08-31 14:32 |
corporate pivots 3s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals stale EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INV | Innventure, Inc. | 83% | 7.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| INVLW | Innventure, Inc. | 91% | 7.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| DAIC | CID Holdco, Inc. | 96% | 6.04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| DAICW | CID Holdco, Inc. | 92% | 6.04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| VITL | Vital Farms, Inc. | 79% | 5.44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| NXGL | NEXGEL, INC. | 87% | 5.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| NXGLW | NEXGEL, INC. | 95% | 5.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| TOVX | Theriva Biologics, Inc. | 71% | 5.03 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies, In | 88% | 4.99 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNC | CEA Industries Inc. | 85% | 4.77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWW | CEA Industries Inc. | 92% | 4.77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWZ | CEA Industries Inc. | 88% | 4.77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| CD | Chaince Digital Holdings Inc | 70% | 4.37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| SBIGW | SpringBig Holdings, Inc. | 95% | 4.12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| HSCSW | HeartSciences Inc. | 73% | 4.11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ioi · separation … |
| GETY | Getty Images Holdings, Inc. | 89% | 4.01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| GNPX | Genprex, Inc. | 100% | 3.94 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| RMCF | Rocky Mountain Chocolate Fac | 62% | 3.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · separation · strategic_review |
value-screen cache: 0/79 tickers have fundamental analysis cached. Daily render workflow pre-warms these. Locally:
python value_screen.py scan --max-tickers 80smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q2 2026 · 8w · next ~Nov 14 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 (period: 2026-06-30 vs 2026-03-31)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $23.52B | $11.87B | $11.65B | +59% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $9.61B | $1.03B | $8.58B | +658% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | DELTA AIR LINES INC | $5.37B | $2.65B | $2.72B | +44% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $2.09B | $0 | $2.09B | +100% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $89M | $1.93B | $-1.84B | -95% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | STATE STREET CORP | $1.01B | $0 | $1.01B | +100% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC | $0 | $870M | $-870M | -100% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q2 2026 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $7.35B | $8.17B | $-819M | -14% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | DAVITA INC | $3.09B | $2.32B | $769M | -8% |
| DECREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | $1.13B | $563M | $563M | -41% |
| NEW | THIRD_POINT | Q2 2026 | WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC | $533M | $0 | $533M | +100% |
| NEW | GATES | Q2 2026 | HOME DEPOT INC | $353M | $0 | $353M | +100% |
| INCREASED | HIMALAYA | Q2 2026 | PDD HOLDINGS INC | $821M | $471M | $350M | +134% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | $788M | $449M | $339M | +24% |
| INCREASED | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | INVESCO QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 | $652M | $329M | $323M | +55% |
| INCREASED | THIRD_POINT | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $366M | $50M | $316M | +486% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | AMAZON COM INC | $1.19B | $900M | $292M | +16% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | INDIVIOR PHARMACEUTICALS INC | $251M | $0 | $251M | +100% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | NUCOR CORP | $414M | $661M | $-247M | -52% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q2 2026 · 8w · next ~Nov 14 Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHABET INC | 7 | 2 | $18.73B | BERKSHIRE, BERKSHIRE, PERSHING_SQUARE |
| TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | 3 | 0 | $469M | APPALOOSA, THIRD_POINT, ARIEL |
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-74M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| ETSY INC | 3 | 0 | $27M | OAKTREE, OAKTREE, OAKTREE |
| AMAZON COM INC | 3 | 1 | $473M | APPALOOSA, PERSHING_SQUARE, THIRD_POINT |