REGIME: 4/5 panels structural, HY credit, Ch.11 fresh, FTC sec-reqECHO: new Ch.11 petitionLNTH: second request issuedSWKS: second request issuedOBX: second request issuedUSHY: HY stress z=-1.89JNK: HY stress z=-1.83HYLB: HY stress z=-1.80HYG: HY stress z=-1.70BOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+3.26 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)
Today's read — 2026-08-04
best merger arb
CRNX — +1.8% spread, +4% annualized, closes in 180d. Buy at $83.52, receive $85.00 on close. Risk = deal break.
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +3.26σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
EchoStar CORP — severe distress. Score 1.00. Filed 2026-08-03. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
PDUFA MRNA on 2026-08-05. Moderna, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-05 (8-K 2026-05-01).
smart-money consensus
MICROSOFT CORP — 1 managers buying vs 4 selling, net $-2.34B. Consensus 13F selling (Q1 2026).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 8m ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.4s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=100.4s
PASS structural_scan rows=4329.4s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=1214.2s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.5s
PASS stub_scanner rows=8422.4s
PASS regulatory rows=459.6s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=2024.2s
PASS bankruptcy rows=61.1s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.9s
structural z-scores 27s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +3.26 | 622.20K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | HOSMEDUSM052N | price_div | +2.23 | 440.60K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-06-01 | Median sale price of new houses |
| 3 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.10 | 8.98M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 4 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +2.00 | 25.67K | ● at ATH | top 0.1% | 2026-07-22 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 5 | MSACSR | leverage | +1.77 | 9.30 | -23.8% below ATH | top 5% | 2026-06-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 6 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.58 | 68.55 | +0.9% above ATL | bottom 1.2% | 2025-04-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 7 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.56 | 25.91K | -4.4% below ATH | top 7% | 2026-08-03 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 8 | BAMLH0A3HYC | narrative | -1.45 | 10.06 | +45.8% above ATL | top 4.3% | 2026-07-30 | ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS — junk-of-junk complacency |
| 9 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.34 | 713.09 | ● at ATH | top 14% | 2026-01-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 10 | SP500 | price_div | +1.29 | 7.60K | ● at ATH | top 9% | 2026-08-03 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 11 | PSAVERT | credit_coll | +1.27 | 2.70 | -91.5% below ATH | bottom 6% | 2026-06-01 | Personal saving rate — low = credit-fueled spending |
| 12 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
merger arb spreads 26s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
regulatory events 4s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-07-14 | prohibition | FTC Secures Major Settlement with Caremark, Resolving Antitrust Case Against Second Drug M | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-07-13 | prohibition | FTC Secures $12 Million in Penalties for Pre-Merger Reporting Act Violations | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | SWKS | second_request | SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | OBX | second_request | Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-08-03 | TEAD | statement_of_objections | Teads Holding Co. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-31 | FCN | second_request | FTI CONSULTING, INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-30 | ICE | second_request | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-30 | MKTX | second_request | MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-30 | SWRD | second_request | Stewards, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-30 | LTCH | statement_of_objections | Latch, Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-29 | CBZ | second_request | CBIZ, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-29 | LAB | statement_of_objections | STANDARD BIOTOOLS INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-23 | EVI | statement_of_objections | EVI INDUSTRIES, INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-21 | ISSC | statement_of_objections | INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-20 | PSNL | second_request | Personalis, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-20 | TEM | second_request | Tempus AI, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-16 | ETSY | phase_ii_opened | ETSY INC 8-K mentions 'Phase 2 investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-15 | CTAS | second_request | CINTAS CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-14 | DIOD | second_request | DIODES INC /DEL/ 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-07-13 | VEEE | second_request | Twin Vee PowerCats, Co. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
catalyst calendar 2s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | pdufa | MRNA | scheduled | Moderna, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-05 (8-K 2026-05-01) |
| 2026-08-17 | pdufa | PFE | expected | PFIZER INC: PDUFA action date 2026-08-17 (8-K 2026-05-05) |
| 2026-08-22 | pdufa | CAPR | expected | CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-22 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-08-25 | pdufa | JAZZ | expected | Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc: PDUFA action date 2026-08-25 (8-K 2026-08-03) |
| 2026-08-25 | pdufa | ZYME | expected | Zymeworks Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-25 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-08-27 | pdufa | GILD | expected | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-27 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-18 | pdufa | NUVL | expected | Nuvalent, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-18 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-22 | pdufa | IONS | expected | IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC: PDUFA action date 2026-09-22 (8-K 2026-07-29) |
| 2026-09-27 | pdufa | PRAX | expected | Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-27 (8-K 2026-06-29) |
| 2026-09-28 | pdufa | BFRI | expected | Biofrontera Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-28 (8-K 2026-05-14) |
| 2026-10-30 | pdufa | INO | expected | INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-10-30 (8-K 2026-05-13) |
| 2026-11-01 | pdufa | AGIO | expected | AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-01 (8-K 2026-07-30) |
| 2026-09-16 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-08-28 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI quarterly index review effective |
| 2026-09-18 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-08-07 | trial_phase3 | UCB Biop | inferred | A Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Bimekizum |
| 2026-08-30 | trial_phase3 | Keymed B | inferred | Study of CM310 in Adolescent Subjects With Atopic Dermatis (NCT NCT06495229) |
| 2026-09-01 | trial_phase3 | Incyte C | inferred | Tafasitamab + Lenalidomide + R-CHOP Versus R-CHOP in Newly Diagnosed High-interm |
| 2026-09-15 | trial_phase3 | Merck Sh | inferred | Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Adjuvant Chemotherapy With |
| 2026-09-20 | trial_phase3 | Hangzhou | inferred | Efficacy and Safety of HDM1005 in Chinese Obesity or Overweight Patients Without |
chapter 11 dockets 1s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
| date | ticker | issuer | reason | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | ECHO | EchoStar CORP | plan of reorganization | severe |
| 2026-07-24 | QVCAQ | QVC Group, Inc. | debtor-in-possession | severe |
| 2026-07-24 | QVCCQ | QVC INC | debtor-in-possession | severe |
| 2026-07-20 | SGMOQ | SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-07-16 | NOTVQ | Inotiv, Inc. | debtor-in-possession | severe |
| 2026-07-15 | LIPO | LIPELLA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. | voluntary petition | severe |
stub pairs 2m ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFTBY | ARM | $189.09B | $229.78B | $-40.69B | -1.27 |
| FWONA | FWONK | $22.36B | $24.49B | $-2.14B | -0.49 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $4.86B | $4.47B | $389M | +1.49 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $4.86B | $4.47B | $390M | +1.49 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.14B | $2.28B | $865M | -1.76 |
HY ETF prem/disc 1m ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USHY | $36.68 | $36.71 | -0.076% | -1.89 | stress | 2026-08-04 09:34 |
| JNK | $95.45 | $95.50 | -0.054% | -1.83 | stress | 2026-08-04 09:33 |
| HYLB | $36.19 | $36.26 | -0.188% | -1.80 | stress | 2026-08-04 09:33 |
| HYG | $79.31 | $79.26 | +0.058% | -1.70 | stress | 2026-08-04 09:32 |
corporate pivots 3s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals stale EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies, In | 89% | 6.82 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNGO | Bionano Genomics, Inc. | 77% | 6.73 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| BNC | CEA Industries Inc. | 91% | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWW | CEA Industries Inc. | 93% | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BNCWZ | CEA Industries Inc. | 87% | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| FRMI | Fermi Inc. | 81% | 5.46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| PMHS | Polomar Health Services, Inc | 90% | 5.44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| CRMT | AMERICAS CARMART INC | 93% | 5.02 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| GNPX | Genprex, Inc. | 99% | 4.75 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| CVKD | Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. | 86% | 4.64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| HSCSW | HeartSciences Inc. | 78% | 4.63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ioi · separation … |
| ZONE | CleanCore Solutions, Inc. | 95% | 4.49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · separation · strategic_review |
| PSIX | POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONA | 75% | 4.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| ADTX | Aditxt, Inc. | 100% | 4.47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · ioi … |
| GPRO | GoPro, Inc. | 74% | 4.45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| WAST | WASTE ENERGY CORP. | 88% | 4.34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| SBIG | SpringBig Holdings, Inc. | 90% | 4.32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change |
| SBIGW | SpringBig Holdings, Inc. | 92% | 4.32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change |
value-screen cache: 0/72 tickers have fundamental analysis cached. Daily render workflow pre-warms these. Locally:
python value_screen.py scan --max-tickers 80smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q1 2026 · 18w · next ~Aug 14 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 (period: 2026-03-31 vs 2025-12-31)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | CHEVRON CORPORATION | $12.05B | $295M | $11.76B | +2906% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $11.87B | $5.59B | $6.29B | +131% |
| DROPPED | GATES | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $0 | $3.72B | $-3.72B | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | VISA INC | $0 | $2.91B | $-2.91B | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | DELTA AIR LINES INC | $2.65B | $0 | $2.65B | +100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | MASTERCARD INCORPORATED | $0 | $2.28B | $-2.28B | -100% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $2.09B | $0 | $2.09B | +100% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $89M | $1.93B | $-1.84B | -95% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC | $95M | $1.79B | $-1.70B | -95% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q1 2026 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $8.17B | $9.75B | $-1.59B | -12% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | DOMINOS PIZZA INC | $0 | $1.40B | $-1.40B | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $1.03B | $0 | $1.03B | +100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | $0 | $1.02B | $-1.02B | -100% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | NEW YORK TIMES CO MTN BE | $1.15B | $254M | $897M | +275% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC | $0 | $870M | $-870M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | POOL CORP | $0 | $702M | $-702M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | AON PLC | $0 | $618M | $-618M | -100% |
| DROPPED | THIRD_POINT | Q1 2026 | PG&E CORP | $0 | $551M | $-551M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | AMAZON COM INC | $0 | $525M | $-525M | -100% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q1 2026 · 18w · next ~Aug 14 Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICROSOFT CORP | 1 | 4 | $-2.34B | GATES, PERSHING_SQUARE, THIRD_POINT |
| UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | 0 | 3 | $-1.17B | BERKSHIRE, SCION, APPALOOSA |
| ALIBABA GROUP HLDG LTD | 0 | 3 | $-468M | APPALOOSA, THIRD_POINT, SCION |
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-122M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| ALPHABET INC | 4 | 2 | $5.32B | BERKSHIRE, PERSHING_SQUARE, BERKSHIRE |
| PG&E CORP | 1 | 3 | $-563M | THIRD_POINT, THIRD_POINT, THIRD_POINT |
| AMAZON COM INC | 3 | 2 | $-57M | BERKSHIRE, APPALOOSA, PERSHING_SQUARE |