REGIME: 3/5 panels structural, HY credit, Ch.11 freshHYLB: HY stress z=-1.70HYG: HY stress z=-1.68USHY: HY stress z=-1.67JNK: HY stress z=-1.66BOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+4.15 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)BAMLH0A3HYC: z=-3.75 extreme analogs: 2024, 2025 (worst S&P 12m -19%)
Today's read — 2026-10-13
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +4.15σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
Leslie's, Inc. — severe distress. Score 0.99. Filed 2026-10-05. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
FOMC RATES on 2026-11-04. FOMC policy decision / press conference.
smart-money consensus
ALPHABET INC — 7 managers buying vs 2 selling, net $18.73B. Consensus 13F buying (Q2 2026).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 7m ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.3s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=100.4s
PASS structural_scan rows=4310.8s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=1301.9s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.6s
PASS stub_scanner rows=8421.9s
PASS regulatory rows=362.8s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=1222.5s
PASS bankruptcy rows=31.1s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.9s
structural z-scores 4s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +4.15 | 742.32K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-04-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | BAMLH0A3HYC | narrative | -3.75 | 12.52 | +81.4% above ATL | top 0.0% | 2026-10-08 | ICE BofA CCC & lower HY OAS — junk-of-junk complacency |
| 3 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.12 | 9.19M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-04-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 4 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +2.02 | 26.01K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-09-30 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 5 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.71 | 66.58 | ● at ATL | bottom 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 6 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.60 | 27.25K | -1.3% below ATH | top 6% | 2026-10-12 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 7 | MSACSR | leverage | +1.32 | 8.50 | -30.3% below ATH | top 11% | 2026-08-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 8 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.32 | 719.87 | ● at ATH | top 14% | 2026-04-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 9 | HOSMEDUSM052N | price_div | -1.23 | 417.50K | +5.7% above ATL | bottom 17% | 2026-09-01 | Median sale price of new houses |
| 10 | SP500 | price_div | +1.22 | 7.81K | ● at ATH | top 10% | 2026-10-12 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 11 | BAA10Y | narrative | -1.12 | 1.48 | +27.6% above ATL | bottom 4.3% | 2026-10-08 | Moody's Baa corporate yield minus 10y Treasury |
| 12 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
merger arb spreads 21s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
no deals passed the sanity floor (15 deals found but offer_value could not be parsed from filings — EDGAR proxy/S-4 parsing may need updated patterns)
regulatory events 3s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-10-13 | prohibition | FTC, States Ask Federal Court to Hold Martin Shkreli in Contempt for Allegedly Violating L | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-10-08 | prohibition | FTC Secures Fair Pricing Protections by Taking Action Against Major Wholesale T-Shirt Dist | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-10-02 | prohibition | FTC Secures Settlement that Protects Small Businesses from Illegal Price Discrimination | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-09-28 | prohibition | FTC, States Win Protections to Lower Pesticide Prices for American Farmers in Antitrust Ca | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-09-16 | prohibition | FTC Takes Action to Prevent Anticompetitive Arrangement in Beretta, Ruger Deal | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-08 | VEEE | second_request | Twin Vee PowerCats, Co. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-08 | BCO | phase_ii_opened | BRINKS CO 8-K mentions 'Phase 2 investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-08 | HESM | phase_ii_opened | Hess Midstream LP 8-K mentions 'Phase II investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-06 | CTAS | second_request | CINTAS CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-06 | HPK | second_request | HighPeak Energy, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-05 | WMS | second_request | ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-10-01 | IIPR | second_request | INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-30 | EZRA | statement_of_objections | Reliance Global Group, Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-30 | LAB | statement_of_objections | STANDARD BIOTOOLS INC. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-25 | ACHC | statement_of_objections | Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-21 | second_request | STORE CAPITAL LLC 8-K mentions 'second request' | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-17 | CZR | second_request | Caesars Entertainment, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| medi | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-29 | SSTI | withdrawn | SOUNDTHINKING, INC. 8-K mentions 'terminated the merger agreement' |
| medi | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-18 | SOBR | withdrawn | SOBR Safe, Inc. 8-K mentions 'terminated the merger agreement' |
| medi | EDGAR-8K | 2026-09-14 | EMCGF | withdrawn | Embrace Change Acquisition Corp. 8-K mentions 'terminated the merger agreement' |
catalyst calendar 1s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | pdufa | BBIO | estimated | BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. 8-K mentions 'PDUFA target action date' |
| 2026-10-30 | pdufa | INO | expected | INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-10-30 (8-K 2026-08-12) |
| 2026-11-01 | pdufa | AGIO | expected | AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-01 (8-K 2026-07-30) |
| 2026-11-27 | pdufa | BBIO | expected | BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-11-27 (8-K 2026-08-10) |
| 2026-11-30 | pdufa | VRTX | expected | VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC / MA: PDUFA action date 2026-11-30 (8-K 2026-08-03) |
| 2026-11-30 | pdufa | ZLAB | expected | Zai Lab Ltd: PDUFA action date 2026-11-30 (8-K 2026-08-06) |
| 2026-12-03 | pdufa | EXEL | expected | EXELIXIS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-12-03 (8-K 2026-08-05) |
| 2026-12-12 | pdufa | VNDA | expected | Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-12-12 (8-K 2026-08-05) |
| 2026-12-27 | pdufa | VTRS | expected | Viatris Inc: PDUFA action date 2026-12-27 (8-K 2026-08-06) |
| 2026-11-04 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-12-16 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-11-27 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI semi-annual index review effective |
| 2026-12-18 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-11-01 | trial_phase3 | CG Oncol | inferred | A Study of Adjuvant Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec for Treatment of Intermediate |
| 2026-12-01 | trial_phase3 | Chia Tai | inferred | Clinical Study on Adjuvant Therapy of TQB3616 Combined With Endocrine Therapy Co |
| 2027-01-08 | trial_phase3 | Ocular T | inferred | Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal OTX-TKI (Axitinib Impl |
chapter 11 dockets 0s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
stub pairs 2m ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFTBY | ARM | $199.70B | $245.34B | $-45.64B | -1.17 |
| FWONA | FWONK | $21.66B | $23.52B | $-1.86B | +0.57 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.14B | $1.48B | $1.67B | -1.81 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $5.17B | $3.05B | $2.12B | +1.38 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $5.18B | $3.05B | $2.13B | +1.37 |
HY ETF prem/disc 1m ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYLB | $35.22 | $35.17 | +0.151% | -1.70 | stress | 2026-10-13 14:40 |
| HYG | $77.29 | $77.03 | +0.338% | -1.68 | stress | 2026-10-13 14:39 |
| USHY | $35.73 | $35.61 | +0.331% | -1.67 | stress | 2026-10-13 14:41 |
| JNK | $92.93 | $92.66 | +0.288% | -1.66 | stress | 2026-10-13 14:40 |
corporate pivots 1s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals stale EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVA | Corteva, Inc. | 85% | 11.83 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation |
| CRMT | AMERICAS CARMART INC | 95% | 9.94 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| LRHC | La Rosa Holdings Corp. | 100% | 9.05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| GETY | Getty Images Holdings, Inc. | 99% | 8.04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| XLAB | Exascale Labs Holdings Inc. | 81% | 6.91 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| XLABW | Exascale Labs Holdings Inc. | 80% | 6.91 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| INV | Innventure, Inc. | 96% | 6.12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| INVLW | Innventure, Inc. | 95% | 6.12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| KPTI | Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. | 95% | 5.82 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | separation · strategic_review |
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies, In | 95% | 5.77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BETRW | Better Home & Finance Holdin | 82% | 5.57 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change |
| RAKR | Rainmaker Worldwide Inc. | 100% | 5.44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| LSTA | LISATA THERAPEUTICS, INC. | 79% | 5.11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| RIME | Algorhythm Holdings, Inc. | 96% | 4.90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| SKYE | Skye Bioscience, Inc. | 88% | 4.60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · ioi … |
| HFUS | Hartford Creative Group, Inc | 63% | 4.55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| VITL | Vital Farms, Inc. | 77% | 4.46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| BETR | Better Home & Finance Holdin | 89% | 4.39 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change |
value-screen cache: 0/85 tickers have fundamental analysis cached. Daily render workflow pre-warms these. Locally:
python value_screen.py scan --max-tickers 80smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q2 2026 · 15w · next ~Nov 14 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 (period: 2026-06-30 vs 2026-03-31)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $23.52B | $11.87B | $11.65B | +59% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $9.61B | $1.03B | $8.58B | +658% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | DELTA AIR LINES INC | $5.37B | $2.65B | $2.72B | +44% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $2.09B | $0 | $2.09B | +100% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $89M | $1.93B | $-1.84B | -95% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | STATE STREET CORP | $1.01B | $0 | $1.01B | +100% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC | $0 | $870M | $-870M | -100% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q2 2026 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $7.35B | $8.17B | $-819M | -14% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | DAVITA INC | $3.09B | $2.32B | $769M | -8% |
| DECREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | $1.13B | $563M | $563M | -41% |
| NEW | THIRD_POINT | Q2 2026 | WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC | $533M | $0 | $533M | +100% |
| NEW | GATES | Q2 2026 | HOME DEPOT INC | $353M | $0 | $353M | +100% |
| INCREASED | HIMALAYA | Q2 2026 | PDD HOLDINGS INC | $821M | $471M | $350M | +134% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | $788M | $449M | $339M | +24% |
| INCREASED | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | INVESCO QQQ TRUST SERIES 1 | $652M | $329M | $323M | +55% |
| INCREASED | THIRD_POINT | Q2 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $366M | $50M | $316M | +486% |
| INCREASED | APPALOOSA | Q2 2026 | AMAZON COM INC | $1.19B | $900M | $292M | +16% |
| NEW | OAKTREE | Q2 2026 | INDIVIOR PHARMACEUTICALS INC | $251M | $0 | $251M | +100% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q2 2026 | NUCOR CORP | $414M | $661M | $-247M | -52% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q2 2026 · 15w · next ~Nov 14 Q2 2026 vs Q1 2026 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALPHABET INC | 7 | 2 | $18.73B | BERKSHIRE, BERKSHIRE, PERSHING_SQUARE |
| TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC | 3 | 0 | $469M | APPALOOSA, THIRD_POINT, ARIEL |
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-74M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| ETSY INC | 3 | 0 | $27M | OAKTREE, OAKTREE, OAKTREE |
| AMAZON COM INC | 3 | 1 | $473M | APPALOOSA, PERSHING_SQUARE, THIRD_POINT |