REGIME: 3/5 panels structural, Ch.11 fresh, FTC sec-reqFMC: second request issuedDEA: second request issuedPATK: second request issuedLCII: second request issuedTALO: second request issuedBOGZ1FL663067003Q: z=+3.26 extreme analogs: 1985, 1997, 2001 (worst S&P 12m -22%)
Today's read — 2026-07-01
best merger arb
ELSE — +1.2% spread, +2% annualized, closes in 180d. Buy at $7.66, receive $7.75 on close. Risk = deal break.
most extreme macro
BOGZ1FL663067003Q at +3.26σ (above historical mean). Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item).
freshest distress
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC — severe distress. Score 0.99. Filed 2026-06-23. Look at unsecured creditor recovery vs. bond price for trade.
next hard catalyst
PDUFA VERA on 2026-07-07. Vera Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-07 (8-K 2.
smart-money consensus
MICROSOFT CORP — 1 managers buying vs 4 selling, net $-2.34B. Consensus 13F selling (Q1 2026).
What you're looking at
merger arbRisk-free return if the announced deal closes. Spread % = (offer − price) / price.
structural zHow extreme each macro variable is vs its 30-yr history. |z|≥3 is a sub-1% historical event.
13F consensusWhat the 14 tracked managers (Buffett, Klarman, Ackman, …) bought/sold last quarter.
catalyst calendarUpcoming binary events with hard dates: FDA approvals, Fed meetings, index rebals, Ph3 readouts.
Ch.11 distressFresh bankruptcy filings ranked by stage and recency. Severe = within 7d of petition + DIP.
HY ETF prem/discCredit-stress early warning. Discount to NAV = credit selling pressure.
stub pairsParent market cap minus value of holdings. Negative stub = the market values the parent's other business below zero (Paulson/Pellegrini archetype).
scanner health 9m ago scanner_health.py
PASS analysis rows=10.0s
PASS edgar.search rows=50.4s
PASS edgar.full_text rows=101.1s
PASS structural_scan rows=4324.0s
PASS merger_arb.discover rows=11914.4s
PASS merger_arb.scan_ex rows=30.5s
PASS stub_scanner rows=8422.1s
PASS regulatory rows=3436.4s
PASS catalyst_calendar rows=1134.2s
PASS bankruptcy rows=69.4s
PASS thirteen_f rows=50.8s
structural z-scores 19s ago FRED — Pellegrini engine
| # | series | class | signed z | level | vs ATH/ATL | rank | as of | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOGZ1FL663067003Q | leverage | +3.26 | 622.20K | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Security broker/dealer margin accounts (Z.1 memo item) |
| 2 | HOSMEDUSM052N | price_div | +2.80 | 429.30K | -0.8% below ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-05-01 | Median sale price of new houses |
| 3 | MSACSR | leverage | +2.34 | 10.30 | -15.6% below ATH | top 2.7% | 2026-05-01 | Monthly supply of houses (months supply) |
| 4 | NCBDBIQ027S | leverage | +2.10 | 8.98M | ● at ATH | top 0.0% | 2026-01-01 | Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP ratio |
| 5 | TLAACBW027SBOG | leverage | +1.98 | 25.46K | ● at ATH | top 0.4% | 2026-06-17 | Total assets, all commercial banks |
| 6 | NASDAQCOM | price_div | +1.64 | 26.21K | -3.2% below ATH | top 6% | 2026-06-30 | NASDAQ Composite — concentration narrative gauge |
| 7 | HDTGPDUSQ163N | leverage | -1.58 | 68.55 | +0.9% above ATL | bottom 1.2% | 2025-04-01 | Household debt to GDP, US (BIS) |
| 8 | USSTHPI | price_div | +1.34 | 713.09 | ● at ATH | top 14% | 2026-01-01 | All-transactions House Price Index, US |
| 9 | SP500 | price_div | +1.31 | 7.50K | -1.5% below ATH | top 9% | 2026-06-30 | S&P 500 index level (nominal) |
| 10 | PSAVERT | credit_coll | +1.17 | 3.00 | -90.6% below ATH | bottom 9% | 2026-05-01 | Personal saving rate — low = credit-fueled spending |
| 11 | BAMLC0A4CBBB | narrative | +1.10 | 0.9500 | -41.7% below ATH | bottom 7% | 2026-06-29 | ICE BofA BBB corporate OAS — low = complacency |
| 12 | TEDRATE | liquidity | -1.06 | 0.0900 | +50.0% above ATL | bottom 1.1% | 2022-01-21 | TED spread — funding stress (discontinued 2022 but long history) |
merger arb spreads 34s ago EDGAR DEFM14A/S-4 + yfinance
| target | px | offer | spread % | ann % | asymm | risk-adj IRR | days to close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELSE | $7.66 | $7.75 | +1.17% | +2.4% | 0.08* | +1.9% | 180d |
regulatory events 18s ago EDGAR 8-K + FTC RSS
| sev | src | date | tkr | class | headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crit | FTC | 2026-06-30 | prohibition | FTC Secures Agreement with Havas to Restore Competition in the Digital Advertising Ecosyst | |
| crit | FTC | 2026-06-22 | prohibition | FTC Approves Final Consent Order in Pest-Control Noncompete Matter | |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | DEA | second_request | Easterly Government Properties, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | PATK | second_request | PATRICK INDUSTRIES INC 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | LCII | second_request | LCI INDUSTRIES 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-30 | TALO | second_request | TALOS ENERGY INC. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-29 | KFY | phase_ii_opened | KORN FERRY 8-K mentions 'Phase 2 investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-26 | FUL | phase_ii_opened | FULLER H B CO 8-K mentions 'in-depth investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-24 | CCXI | second_request | Churchill Capital Corp XI 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-23 | FCFS | phase_ii_opened | FirstCash Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'Phase 2 investigation' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-22 | APGE | second_request | Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-16 | ASRT | second_request | Assertio Holdings, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-15 | CMTL | second_request | COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP /DE/ 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-12 | CTAS | second_request | CINTAS CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-12 | UNF | second_request | UNIFIRST CORP 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-11 | SPKL | second_request | Spark I Acquisition Corp 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-11 | VREOD | statement_of_objections | Vireo Growth Inc. 8-K mentions 'statement of objections' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-10 | FGRS | second_request | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-09 | NUVL | second_request | Nuvalent, Inc. 8-K mentions 'second request' |
| high | EDGAR-8K | 2026-06-09 | INGR | phase_ii_opened | Ingredion Inc 8-K mentions 'Phase II investigation' |
catalyst calendar 10s ago EDGAR 8-K PDUFA + FOMC + index rebal
| date | type | ticker | timing | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | pdufa | VERA | scheduled | Vera Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-07 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-07-17 | pdufa | CELC | expected | Celcuity Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-17 (8-K 2026-06-02) |
| 2026-07-29 | pdufa | OTLK | expected | Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-07-29 (8-K 2026-06-16) |
| 2026-08-05 | pdufa | MRNA | expected | Moderna, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-05 (8-K 2026-05-01) |
| 2026-08-17 | pdufa | PFE | expected | PFIZER INC: PDUFA action date 2026-08-17 (8-K 2026-05-05) |
| 2026-08-22 | pdufa | CAPR | expected | CAPRICOR THERAPEUTICS, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-22 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-08-25 | pdufa | ZYME | expected | Zymeworks Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-25 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-08-27 | pdufa | GILD | expected | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.: PDUFA action date 2026-08-27 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-18 | pdufa | NUVL | expected | Nuvalent, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-18 (8-K 2026-05-07) |
| 2026-09-27 | pdufa | PRAX | expected | Praxis Precision Medicines, Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-27 (8-K 2026-06-29) |
| 2026-09-28 | pdufa | BFRI | expected | Biofrontera Inc.: PDUFA action date 2026-09-28 (8-K 2026-05-14) |
| 2026-07-29 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-09-16 | fomc | RATES | scheduled | FOMC policy decision / press conference |
| 2026-08-28 | index_rebal | MSCI | expected | MSCI quarterly index review effective |
| 2026-09-18 | index_rebal | S&P 500 | expected | S&P quarterly rebalance effective |
| 2026-08-06 | trial_phase3 | Amgen | inferred | A Study of Apremilast in Pediatric Participants in Children With Mild to Moderat |
| 2026-09-01 | trial_phase3 | Mabwell | inferred | A Study to Evaluate 9MW2821 Versus Chemotherapy in Subjects With Previously Trea |
chapter 11 dockets 6s ago EDGAR 8-K full-text
| date | ticker | issuer | reason | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | SGMO | SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-06-23 | OPIRQ | OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST | debtor-in-possession | severe |
| 2026-06-12 | SNBR | Sleep Number Corp | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-06-08 | — | SILVER STAR PROPERTIES REIT, INC (CIK 000 | voluntary petition | severe |
| 2026-06-08 | GOCO | GoHealth, Inc. | disclosure statement | severe |
| 2026-06-03 | NOTV | Inotiv, Inc. | debtor-in-possession | severe |
stub pairs 2m ago parent/sub mcap diff
| parent | sub | parent mcap | stake value | stub value | z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFTBY | ARM | $214.51B | $340.84B | $-126.33B | -3.75 |
| FWONA | FWONK | $21.94B | $23.84B | $-1.90B | +0.23 |
| LBRDK | CHTR | $4.77B | $4.55B | $225M | +1.65 |
| LBRDA | CHTR | $4.78B | $4.55B | $228M | +1.65 |
| IAC | MGM | $3.14B | $2.45B | $696M | -1.80 |
HY ETF prem/disc 1m ago yfinance — HYG JNK HYLB USHY
| ETF | price | NAV | prem/disc | z-score | status | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYG | $79.97 | $79.90 | +0.087% | -0.13 | normal | 2026-07-01 10:47 |
| HYLB | $36.52 | $36.51 | +0.019% | -0.09 | normal | 2026-07-01 10:48 |
| JNK | $96.37 | $96.30 | +0.069% | +0.06 | normal | 2026-07-01 10:47 |
| USHY | $37.02 | $37.01 | +0.024% | -0.02 | normal | 2026-07-01 10:48 |
corporate pivots 12s ago EDGAR 8-K + press wires
no pivot candidates in last 60 days (this is normal — genuine pivots are rare)
distressed equity reversals stale EDGAR 8-K/13D/Form 4 + yfinance — ≥60% drawdown gated by event catalyst
| ticker | name | dd | DD score | tier | value | P/TBV | ROIC | FCF m | M | why | catalysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNGO | Bionano Genomics, Inc. | 77% | 8.66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| GNPX | Genprex, Inc. | 99% | 7.38 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| XCUR | EXICURE, INC. | 77% | 6.07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| ADTX | Aditxt, Inc. | 100% | 5.60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · ioi … |
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies, In | 80% | 4.94 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| CVKD | Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. | 76% | 4.72 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| INDP | Indaptus Therapeutics, Inc. | 77% | 4.65 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| ZONE | CleanCore Solutions, Inc. | 88% | 4.60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · strategic_review |
| BIRD | Smartbird, Inc. | 76% | 4.56 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| PASG | Passage BIO, Inc. | 75% | 4.55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ioi · strategic_review |
| GIGGW | Hadron Energy, Inc. | 78% | 4.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation |
| CRMT | AMERICAS CARMART INC | 96% | 4.29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
| FFAI | FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT E | 92% | 4.24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| FFAIW | FARADAY FUTURE INTELLIGENT E | 80% | 4.24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign |
| NOTE | FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. | 99% | 4.24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · strategic_review |
| COEPW | Z Squared Inc. | 77% | 4.17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · strategic_review |
| DJTWW | Trump Media & Technology Gro | 73% | 4.07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | ceo_change · ceo_resign · separation … |
| GPRO | GoPro, Inc. | 73% | 3.99 | — | — | — | — | — | — | not analyzed yet | strategic_review |
value-screen cache: 0/61 tickers have fundamental analysis cached. Daily render workflow pre-warms these. Locally:
python value_screen.py scan --max-tickers 80smart money — cross-manager 13F changes Q1 2026 · 13w · next ~Aug 14 EDGAR 13F-HR — Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 (period: 2026-03-31 vs 2025-12-31)
| type | manager | period | issuer | new val | old val | delta $ | Δ shares % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | CHEVRON CORPORATION | $12.05B | $295M | $11.76B | +2906% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $11.87B | $5.59B | $6.29B | +131% |
| DROPPED | GATES | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $0 | $3.72B | $-3.72B | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | VISA INC | $0 | $2.91B | $-2.91B | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | DELTA AIR LINES INC | $2.65B | $0 | $2.65B | +100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | MASTERCARD INCORPORATED | $0 | $2.28B | $-2.28B | -100% |
| NEW | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | MICROSOFT CORP | $2.09B | $0 | $2.09B | +100% |
| DECREASED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $89M | $1.93B | $-1.84B | -95% |
| DECREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC | $95M | $1.79B | $-1.70B | -95% |
| DECREASED | GATES | Q1 2026 | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC DEL | $8.17B | $9.75B | $-1.59B | -12% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | DOMINOS PIZZA INC | $0 | $1.40B | $-1.40B | -100% |
| NEW | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | ALPHABET INC | $1.03B | $0 | $1.03B | +100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | $0 | $1.02B | $-1.02B | -100% |
| NEW | SCION | Q3 2025 | PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC | $912M | $0 | $912M | +100% |
| INCREASED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | NEW YORK TIMES CO MTN BE | $1.15B | $254M | $897M | +275% |
| DROPPED | PERSHING_SQUARE | Q1 2026 | HILTON WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC | $0 | $870M | $-870M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | POOL CORP | $0 | $702M | $-702M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | AON PLC | $0 | $618M | $-618M | -100% |
| DROPPED | THIRD_POINT | Q1 2026 | PG&E CORP | $0 | $551M | $-551M | -100% |
| DROPPED | BERKSHIRE | Q1 2026 | AMAZON COM INC | $0 | $525M | $-525M | -100% |
13F consensus — cross-manager overlap Q1 2026 · 13w · next ~Aug 14 Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025 — grouped by issuer, buyers vs sellers, net Δ$
| issuer | buyers | sellers | net Δ$ | managers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICROSOFT CORP | 1 | 4 | $-2.34B | GATES, PERSHING_SQUARE, THIRD_POINT |
| UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | 0 | 3 | $-1.17B | BERKSHIRE, SCION, APPALOOSA |
| ALIBABA GROUP HLDG LTD | 0 | 3 | $-468M | APPALOOSA, THIRD_POINT, SCION |
| JD.COM INC | 0 | 3 | $-122M | APPALOOSA, SCION, OAKTREE |
| ALPHABET INC | 4 | 2 | $5.32B | BERKSHIRE, PERSHING_SQUARE, BERKSHIRE |
| PG&E CORP | 1 | 3 | $-563M | THIRD_POINT, THIRD_POINT, THIRD_POINT |
| AMAZON COM INC | 3 | 2 | $-57M | BERKSHIRE, APPALOOSA, PERSHING_SQUARE |